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10:54 Mon 06 Jun 2022
SP Angel . Morning View . Monday 06 06 22Improved risk sentiment lifts commodities on Chinese restrictions easing hopesMiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below D-Day started on 6th June 1944ASX:AUQ – Covid lockdowns and Ukraine conflict delay Al Wash-hi Majaza Copper-Gold project completionLON:BSE – Rain storms flood pits a Kwale ilmenite/rutile mine in Kenya
SP Angel . Morning View . Monday 06 06 22
Improved risk sentiment lifts commodities on Chinese restrictions easing hopes

 
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below 
D-Day started on 6th June 1944

 
Alara Resources (ASX:AUQ) – Covid lockdowns and Ukraine conflict delay Al Wash-hi Majaza Copper-Gold project completion
Base Resources Limited (AIM:BSE, ASX:BSE) – Rain storms flood pits a Kwale ilmenite/rutile mine in Kenya
Cornish Metals Inc (AIM:CUSN, TSX-V:CUSN, OTC:SBWFF)* – Valuation 48p/s – Nomination of former Anglo American CEO, Tony Trahar to Board
Culpeo Minerals Ltd (ASX:CPO)* – Third hole at Lana Corina intersects 173m averaging over 1% copper
Empire Metals Ltd (AIM:EEE)*– New drilling campaign to commence at Eclipse-Gindalbie
GreenRoc Mining PLC (AIM:GROC) – Phase-2 drilling to commence at Amitsoq
Rainbow Rare Earths Ltd (LSE:RBW)* – MoU signed in South Africa to process Rare Earths from phosphates near Johannesburg
KEFI Gold and Copper PLC (AIM:KEFI, OTC:KFFLF)* – Annual results
 
Base metals rise as China lockdowns ease alongside potential for cut in US / China tariffs
 
Activist fund Elliott seeks $456m from LME over nickel market chaos as funds seek compensation for cancelled trades
Dow Jones Industrials -1.05% at 32,900
Nikkei 225 +0.56% at 27,916
HK Hang Seng +1.53% at 21,405
Shanghai Composite +1.28% at 3,236
   
Economics
US – Markets closed lower on Friday after strong labour numbers are likely to have lend more support to the Fed to continue raising rates higher.
 
China – Services sector remained in a contraction territory in May, although the pace of declines slowed down as measures to contain the recent increase in Covid 19 cases eased, private sector survey results from Caixin show.
 
ECB – The central bank is holding a monetary policy meeting later this week with expectations for authorities to signal a 25bp rate hike on July 21, up from current -0.5%.
 
UK – PM Johnson is facing a confidence vote in his leadership this evening after at least 54 fellow MPs (15% of Tory MPs) supported the motion.
 
Currencies
US$1.0728/eur vs 1.0725/eur last week. Yen 130.64/$ vs 129.49/$. SAr 15.441/$ vs 15.594/$. $1.252/gbp vs $1.260/gbp. 0.721/aud vs 0.718/aud. CNY 6.653/$ vs 6.684/$.
 
Commodity News
Precious metals:         
Gold US$1,854/oz vs US$1,836/oz last week
Gold ETFs 105.1moz vs US$105.2moz last week
Platinum US$1,029/oz vs US$979/oz last week
Palladium US$2,019/oz vs US$2,018/oz last week
Silver US$22.16/oz vs US$21.61/oz last week
Rhodium US$15,000/oz vs US$15,250/oz last week
 
Base metals:   
Copper US$ 9,727/t vs US$9,446/t last week
Aluminium US$ 2,792/t vs US$2,786/t last week
Nickel US$ 29,705/t vs US$28,325/t last week
Zinc US$ 3,909/t vs US$3,870/t last week
Lead US$ 2,211/t vs US$2,168/t last week
Tin US$ 34,500/t vs US$34,505/t last week
 
Energy:           
Oil US$120.0/bbl vs US$117.2/bbl last week
Crude oil prices finished the week higher despite the OPEC+ agreement to accelerate its planned production increase in 3Q22 from 432kb/d per month to 648kb/d in July and August.
Prices also lifted further as Saudi Arabia raised crude prices
Despite the embargo by Western nations, there is growing evidence of international buyers who have not signed up to boycott Russian oil (including China and India) taking advantage of the current c.30% discount for Urals Oil and switch their buying to this cheaper oil in lieu of other more expensive sources.
European energy prices were stable as Russia’s Gazprom said its supply of gas to Europe through Ukraine via the Sudzha entry point was unchanged d/d at 40.1mcm.
Natural Gas US$8.814/mmbtu vs US$8.388/mmbtu last week
Uranium UXC US$50.70/lb vs $48.45/lb last week
         
Bulk:   
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$143.3/t vs US$134.2/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$725.8/t vs US$712.6/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$229.0/t vs US$244.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$391.0/t vs US$400.0/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$385.0/t vs US$455.0/t
 
Other:  
Cobalt LME 3m US$74,000/t vs US$74,000/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$143,164/t vs US$142,509/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$67,261/t vs US$65,756/t
China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$4,500/t vs US$4,500/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,861/t vs US$1,861/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$335/t vs US$336/t
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$815/t vs US$815/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 9.6/lb vs US$9.6/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 37.25/kg vs US$38.25/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$372/t vs US$370/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$90.1/t vs US$90.0/kg
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$1,200.0/t vs US$1,200.0/kg
 
Battery News
Tesla to cut staff by 10%
 
Ford to invest $3.7bn for EV production in Midwest US
 
Company News
Alara Resources (ASX:AUQ) A$0.057/s, mkt cap A$44m – Covid lockdowns and Ukraine conflict delay Al Wash-hi Majaza Copper-Gold project completion
 
Base Resources Limited (AIM:BSE, ASX:BSE) 17.19p, Mkt cap £201m – Rain storms flood pits a Kwale ilmenite/rutile mine in Kenya
Cornish Metals Inc (AIM:CUSN, TSX-V:CUSN, OTC:SBWFF)* – 26.25p, Mkt cap £86m – Nomination of former Anglo American CEO, Tony Trahar to Board
Valuation 48p/s
CLICK FOR PDF

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Cornish Metals.
 
Culpeo Minerals Ltd (ASX:CPO)* A$0.42, Mkt cap A$8.8m – Third hole at Lana Corina intersects 173m averaging over 1% copper
Conclusion: Initial results from the first three-hole of the drilling programme at the Lana Corina project show long intersections of copper mineralisation.  We await the results of the balance of the programme and further information of the company’s plans to advance the project.
*An analyst at SP Angel holds shares in Culpeo Minerals
 
Empire Metals Ltd (AIM:EEE)* 1.3p, Mkt Cap £5.6m – New drilling campaign to commence at Eclipse-Gindalbie
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals
 
GreenRoc Mining PLC (AIM:GROC)  6p, Mkt Cap £6.7m – Phase-2 drilling to commence at Amitsoq
 
Rainbow Rare Earths Ltd (LSE:RBW)* 15.9p, Mkt cap £84m – MoU signed in South Africa to process Rare Earths from phosphates near Johannesburg
BUY – 46p
Click link for full research note: CLICK FOR PDF

(Rainbow hold 70% of Phalaborwa with 30% to be held by Bosveld Phosphates)
(Neodymium Nd, Praesidium Pr, Terbium Tb, Dysprosium Dy. Rainbow holds 100% of the Gakara mine and associated licenses in Burundi)

Conclusion:  While we do not yet know the scale of the flow to be processed, the capital cost or the terms of the joint venture we can see significant opportunity to add to Rainbow’s production of Nd, Pr, Dy and Tb along with a meaningful uplift in future profit assuming the process works well when up-scaled.
*SP Angel acts as financial advisor and broker to Rainbow Rare Earths
 
KEFI Gold and Copper PLC (AIM:KEFI, OTC:KFFLF)*  0.7p, Mkt Cap £29m – Annual results
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper
 
No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
 
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Joe Rowbottom – Joe.Rowbottom@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486
 
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
 
 
SP Angel                                                            
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street London
W1S 2PP
 
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
 


Sources of commodity prices
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver – BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel – Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt – LME
Oil Brent – ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore – NYMEX
Thermal Coal – Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal – SSY
RRE – Steelhome
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite – Asian Metal
 
DISCLAIMER
This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.
This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.
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This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.
Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.
Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.
SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).
SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.
MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.
A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).
SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%
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